Sig-Gis

Natural Hazards

Natural Hazard and Risk Analytics

:::

Assessment and Spatial Analysis

• Wildfire, earthquake, tsunami, floods
• Parcel- to landscape-level assessments
• Event likelihoods and patterns
• Socio-economic impacts
• Ecosystem services impacts
• Pre-, during, and post-event modeling

Due to SIG’s core strength in spatial environmental modeling, many of our products are in the form of mapped data. Our approach to analyzing natural hazards incorporates three basic components needed to produce maps of expected impacts:

• Magnitude of natural hazard events
• Exposure of assets to natural hazard events
• Frequency of natural hazard events

By linking spatially explicit models, a more comprehensive analysis of natural hazards and their impacts is possible. For example, a large magnitude natural hazard event may be much less of a concern in a location where few assets are exposed; conversely, concern may be much greater for quite minor natural hazard occurrences, if asset exposure is moderate and probability of events is high. Maps of expected impacts and the factors that drive them are essential for mitigating natural hazards in the most cost effective way.

EXAMPLE PROJECTS

:::

Carbon vulnerability analysis: We help clients that are interested in monitoring forest conditions, participating in carbon exchange programs, and determining optimal management strategies in the face of varying fire hazards. We also evaluate different scenarios of forest management for assessing tradeoffs between competing risks/goals. This includes mapping and monitoring forests, estimating forest biomass using both remote sensing and field methods, and modeling the growth and disturbance regime (fire, drought, beetle kill) of forests under different scenarios. In the process, the team at SIG can help clients determine which forest projects are likely to reduce losses to natural hazards and yield high-quality and legitimate carbon offsets.

Risk rating for structures or communities: We can assist clients that need to quantify the risk of losses, whether at the level of individual parcels or for entire urbanized regions. SIG research scientists and collaborators have extensive expertise in modeling spatially explicit natural hazard events, their expected impacts, and related scenario analysis. This type of evaluation is crucial for targeting mitigation activities (e.g., for community wildfire protection planning) and/or quantifying portfolio exposure to potential large-scale losses (e.g., insurance and reinsurance companies).

AND MANY MORE (Call for details...)

Latest News

Modelling firebrand transport in wildfires using HIGRAD/FIRETEC: Eunmo Koo, Rodman R. Linn, Patrick J. Pagni, Carleton B. Edminster

Firebrand transport is studied for disc and cylindrical firebrands by modelling their trajectories with a coupled-physics fire model HIGRAD/FIRETEC. Simulations with eight firebrand models are performed to investigate the effect of firebrand shape, combustion, the terminal velocity assumption and fuel conditions. The coupled fire–atmosphere behaviour is critical to firebrand transport.
Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments: M. A. Cochrane, C. J. Moran, M. C. Wimberly, A. D. Baer, M. A. Finney, K. L. Beckendorf, J. Eidenshink, Z. Zhu

We present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. Treatment effects within 14 large wildfires reduced average wildfire size by 7.2%, redistributing landscape fire risk such that fire risk was promoted in some areas and reduced in others.
Fuel age, weather and burn probability in Portugal: Paulo M. Fernandes, Carlos Loureiro, Marco Magalhães, Pedro Ferreira, Manuel Fernandes

We describe how burn probability changes with fuel age in Portugal. The time-dependency of hazard of burning is moderate. Larger fires and fires impelled by extreme weather conditions are associated to increased burn likelihood of young fuels but are also selective for older fuels. Fire management implications are discussed.
The effect of wildfires on vegetation cover and dune activity in Australia: N. Levin, S. Levental, H. Morag

We used satellite images at spatial resolutions between 0.6 and 250 m to monitor vegetation recovery on vegetated linear dunes following wildfires in Western Australia. Although wildfires allow sand to be mobilised by wind, after just 1–5 years, vegetation recovers, limiting sand movement.
Environmental susceptibility model for predicting forest fire occurrence in the Western Ghats of India: Quentin Renard, Raphaël Pélissier, B. R. Ramesh, Narendran Kodandapani

Fire susceptibility models provide a quantitative understanding of the environmental controls of forest fires over the period 2003–07 in the Western Ghats of India. They allow identification of large fire-prone areas from the climatic conditions of the monsoon season before the fire season, and local vulnerable sites based on vegetation types.
Relevance of soil seed bank and seed rain to immediate seed supply after a large wildfire: Anselm Rodrigo, Xavier Arnan, Javier Retana

Fire susceptibility models provide a quantitative understanding of the environmental controls of forest fires over the period 2003–07 in the Western Ghats of India. They allow identification of large fire-prone areas from the climatic conditions of the monsoon season before the fire season, and local vulnerable sites based on vegetation types.
Soda Fire (Napa County) Started 2/23/2012, updated 2/25/2012: The fire burned in steep and rugged terrain, making access difficult. Gusty winds posed a challenge on Thursday, but diminished on Friday allowing firefighters to make good progress towards containment of the fire. Resources will remain on the incident today patrolling and mopping up.
The role of fire severity, distance from fire perimeter and vegetation on post-fire recovery of small-mammal communities in chaparral: Jay Diffendorfer, Genie M. Fleming, Scott Tremor, Wayne Spencer, Jan L. Beyers

We studied how fire severity and distance from unburned habitat affected small-mammal communities in southern California chaparral. Vegetation characteristics associated with post-fire recovery and other habitat features drove small-mammal responses, whereas distance and fire severity had few substantial effects.
A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management: James P. Minas, James P. Minas, John W. Hearne, John W. Hearne, John W. Handmer, John W. Handmer

Wildfire managers operate in a highly challenging decision environment characterised by complexity, multiple conflicting objectives and uncertainty. Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses analytical techniques to aid decision-making in complex systems. This paper discusses a range of OR methods available to assist wildfire managers, with illustrative examples drawn from the wildfire and disaster OR literature.
Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing: Steen Magnussen, Stephen W. Taylor

Spatial and temporal variation in seven fire regime variables are described for Canada’s managed forests. Opportunities for sharing forest fire suppression resources are explored with simulations of fire regimes and quantifying the degree of temporal and spatial synchrony in peak fire-activities.